“...It has been 40 years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists...”

“...SUMMARY There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil...”

“...We construct a monthly real-time dataset consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a...”

“...We explore the effect of the sharp and sustained decline after June 2014 in the global price of crude oil (and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline) on U.S...”

“...Central banks routinely use short-horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook. We address a number of...”

“...In recent years there has been an increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market...”

“...Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form...”

“...Many oil industry analysts believe that there is predictive power in the product spread, defined as the difference between suitably weighted refined product...”

“...Based on a time-varying factor-augmented vector autoregression, we demonstrate that the propagation mechanism of monetary policy disturbances differs across...”