“...Welch and Goyal (2008) find that numerous economic variables with in-sample predictive ability for the equity premium fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample...”

“...The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that...”

“...We propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. The indices measure how unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is...”

“...Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean-squared prediction error sense...”

“...This article proposes new methodologies for evaluating economic models' out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation...”

“...This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning. Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined...”

“...The aim of this paper is to assess whether modeling structural change can help improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We conduct a simulated...”

“...•Comparisons of static and adaptive models for natural gas consumption forecasting.•Comparisons of linear and nonlinear forecasting models (ARX, neural...”

“...Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model...”

“...Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions...”