“...We develop a simple model of futures arbitrage that implies that if purchases by commodity index funds influence futures prices, then the notional positions of...”

“...This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates this to the...”

“...The Federal Reserve on net purchased almost $4 trillion in additional securities between March 2009 and December 2014. Although the initial announcements of...”

“...This paper explores the properties of daily changes in the prices for near-term fed funds futures contracts. The paper finds these contracts to be excellent...”

“...Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions (VARs) can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs...”

“...This paper reviews some of the literature on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks with a particular focus on possible nonlinearities in the relation...”

“...We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. We estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their...”

“...This paper proposes a very tractable approach to modeling changes in regime. The parameters of an autoregression are viewed as the outcome of a discrete-state...”