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  • Your search results: "Statistical forecasts"
Showing 1 - 20 results of 3,415 for search '"Statistical forecasts"', query time: 2.18s Narrow search
  • 1
    Cover Image Journal Article
    An Atmospheric Signal Lowering the Spring Predictability Barrier in Statistical ENSO Forecasts
    by Mukhin, Dmitry   Gavrilov, Andrey   Seleznev, Aleksei   Buyanova, Maria Published in Geophysical research letters (28.03.2021)
    “...The loss of autocorrelations of tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) during late spring, also called the spring predictability barrier (SPB), is a factor...”
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  • 2
    Cover Image Journal Article
    A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction
    by Ivo Welch   Amit Goyal Published in The Review of financial studies (01.07.2008)
    “...Our article comprehensively reexamines the performance of variables that have been suggested by the academic literature to be good predictors of the equity...”
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  • 3
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators
    by Christopher J. Neely   David E. Rapach   Jun Tu   Guofu Zhou Published in Management science (01.07.2014)
    “...Academic research relies extensively on macroeconomic variables to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium, with relatively little attention paid to the...”
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  • 4
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Predicting Excess Stock Returns out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?
    by John Y. Campbell   Samuel B. Thompson Published in The Review of financial studies (01.07.2008)
    “...Goyal and Welch (2007) argue that the historical average excess stock return forecasts future excess stock returns better than regressions of excess returns on...”
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  • 5
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy
    by David E. Rapach   Jack K. Strauss   Guofu Zhou Published in The Review of financial studies (01.02.2010)
    “...Welch and Goyal (2008) find that numerous economic variables with in-sample predictive ability for the equity premium fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample...”
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  • 6
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Remeasuring Aging
    by Warren C. Sanderson   Sergei Scherbov Published in Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) (10.09.2010)
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  • 7
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    Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster
    by Bent Flyvbjerg   Massimo Garbuio   Dan Lovallo Published in California management review (01.01.2009)
    “..."Over budget, over time, over and over again" appears to be an appropriate slogan for large, complex infrastructure projects. This article explains why cost,...”
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  • 8
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
    by Olivier Coibion   Yuriy Gorodnichenko Published in The American economic review (01.08.2015)
    “...We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from...”
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  • 9
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Market Expectations in the Cross-Section of Present Values
    by BRYAN KELLY   SETH PRUITT Published in The Journal of finance (New York) (01.10.2013)
    “...Returns and cash flow growth for the aggregate U.S. stock market are highly and robustly predictable. Using a single factor extracted from the cross-section of...”
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  • 10
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Exchange Rate Predictability
    by Barbara Rossi Published in Journal of economic literature (01.12.2013)
    “...The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that...”
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  • 11
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
    by Barbara Mellers   Lyle Ungar   Jonathan Baron   Jaime Ramos   Burcu Gurcay   Katrina Fincher   Sydney E. Scott   Don Moore   Pavel Atanasov   Samuel A. Swift   Terry Murray   Eric Stone   Philip E. Tetlock Published in Psychological science (01.05.2014)
    “...Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate...”
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  • 12
    Cover Image Journal Article
    The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability
    by John H. Cochrane Published in The Review of financial studies (01.07.2008)
    “...If returns are not predictable, dividend growth must be predictable, to generate the observed variation in divided yields. I find that the absence of dividend...”
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  • 13
    Cover Image Journal Article
    The Benefits of Financial Statement Comparability
    by GUS DE FRANCO   S.P. KOTHARI   RODRIGO S. VERDI Published in Journal of accounting research (01.09.2011)
    “...Investors, regulators, academics, and researchers all emphasize the importance of financial statement comparability. However, an empirical construct of...”
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  • 14
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Predictability: Initialization Month Dependence
    by J. J. Day   S. Tietsche   E. Hawkins Published in Journal of climate (15.06.2014)
    “...Seasonal-to-interannual predictions of Arctic sea ice may be important for Arctic communities and industries alike. Previous studies have suggested that Arctic...”
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  • 15
    Cover Image Journal Article
    The Outlook for Population Growth
    by Ronald Lee Published in Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) (29.07.2011)
    “...Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment,...”
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  • 16
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia
    by Sydney C. Ludvigson   Serena Ng Published in The Review of financial studies (01.12.2009)
    “...Are there important cyclical fluctuations in bond market premiums and, if so, with what macroeconomic aggregates do these premiums vary? We use the methodology...”
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  • 17
    Cover Image Journal Article
    What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?
    by Olivier Coibion   Yuriy Gorodnichenko Published in The Journal of political economy (01.02.2012)
    “...A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of...”
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  • 18
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    The Effect of Mandatory IFRS Adoption on Financial Analysts' Information Environment
    by DONAL BYARD   YING LI   YONG YU Published in Journal of accounting research (01.03.2011)
    “...This paper examines the effect of the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by the European Union on financial analysts'...”
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  • 19
    Cover Image Journal Article
    FORECASTING INFLATION USING DYNAMIC MODEL AVERAGING
    by Gary Koop   Dimitris Korobilis Published in International economic review (Philadelphia) (01.08.2012)
    “...We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods that incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods...”
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  • 20
    Cover Image Journal Article
    Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it
    by Bent Flyvbjerg Published in Oxford review of economic policy (01.10.2009)
    “...The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates...”
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