Towards a new early warning system of financial crises

This paper develops a new early warning system (EWS) model, based on a multinomial logit model, for predicting financial crises. It is shown that commonly used EWS approaches, which use binomial discrete-dependent-variable models, are subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when...

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Bibliographic details
Volume:	25
Main Author:	Bussiere, Matthieu Fratzscher, Marcel
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Zielgruppe:	Professional Academic
Place of publication:	OXFORD Elsevier Ltd 2006 ELSEVIER SCI LTD Elsevier Elsevier B.V
published in:	Journal of international money and finance Vol. 25; no. 6; pp. 953 - 973
Data of publication:	2006
ISSN:	0261-5606 1873-0639
EISSN:	1873-0639
Discipline:	Business
Series:	Journal of International Money and Finance
Subjects:	Financial stability Currency crises Crisis prediction Emerging markets Early warning system Business & Economics Business, Finance Social Sciences Economic forecasting Analysis Methods F30 F31 Emerging markets F47 Financial stability Currency crises Crisis prediction Early warning system crisis prediction early warning system financial stability emerging markets currency crises
Online Access:	available in Bonn?
Database:	Social Sciences Citation Index Web of Science - Social Sciences Citation Index - 2006 Web of Knowledge Web of Science RePEc RePEc IDEAS CrossRef Academic OneFile (A&I only) Database information Databases - DBIS