Revising Probability Estimates: Why Increasing Likelihood Means Increasing Impact

Forecasted probabilities rarely stay the same for long. Instead, they are subject to constant revision-moving upward or downward, uncertain events become more or less likely. Yet little is known about how people interpret probability estimates beyond static snapshots, like a 30% chance of rain. Here...

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Bibliographic details
Volume: 111
Main Author: Maglio, Sam J
Polman, Evan
Format: Journal Article
Language: English
Zielgruppe: Academic
Place of publication: WASHINGTON American Psychological Association 01.08.2016
AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC
American Psychological Association, Inc
published in: Journal of personality and social psychology Vol. 111; no. 2; pp. 141 - 158
Editor: Smith, Eliot R
Data of publication: 20160800
ISSN: 0022-3514
1939-1315
EISSN: 1939-1315
Discipline: Psychology
Sociology & Social History
Subjects:
Online Access: Fulltext
Database: Web of Knowledge
Social Sciences Citation Index
Web of Science
Web of Science - Social Sciences Citation Index - 2016
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