中国人口老龄化与收入不平等关系研究

日益严重的老龄化和不断拉大的收入差距是当今中国发展面临的两大挑战,两者之间是否存在关联呢?文章利用1982—2013年时间序列数据,在非线性假设的基础上运用岭回归(Ridge Regression)估计方法从收入不平等的各个层面对两者之间的关系进行了实证检验,结果表明:不管是从全国、城镇内部、农村内部还是城乡对比的角度,人口老龄化都对收入不平等具有显著的倒U型影响,人口老龄化在不同的阶段通过改变“人口红利”影响经济发展从而间接作用于收入分配,这种作用机制不仅被动而且不一定有益,因此只有制定合适的人口政策和财政政策激发二次“人口红利”,才是促进经济社会良性发展的长久之计。...

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Bibliographic details
Volume: 36
Main Author: 李飞越
Format: Journal Article
Language: Chinese
Place of publication: 暨南大学 经济学院,广州,510632 2015
published in: 西北人口 Vol. 36; no. 5; pp. 68 - 73
Data of publication: 2015
ISSN: 1007-0672
Alternate Title: The Research on the Relationship of China’s aging and income inequality
Classification Codes:
Bibliography: LI Fei-yue (Institute of economics ,Jinan University , GuangZhou,510632 )
Growing aging and widening income disparity are two major challenges which are threating the development of today ’s China,so Whether there is an association between them? This article examine the relationship between them from all angles on the basis of non-linear assumptions ,and with the method of Ridge Regression by using the time-series data from 1982 to 2013. The results shows that population aging have a inverted U impact on the income inequality from all angles , population aging changes the income distribution by changing the “demographic dividend” and thus indirectly affect economic development at different stages,but this kind of mechanism is not necessarily beneficial. Therefore ,It is the development of appropriate popula-tion policy and fiscal policy to stimulate the secondary “demographic dividend”that the society can be running on a good way.
Aging;income inequality;non-linear;Ridge Regression
62-1019/C
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