Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, and (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at shor...

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Bibliographic details
Volume: 27
Main Author: Frankel, Jeffrey Alexander
Format: Journal Article
Language: English
Place of publication: Oxford University Press 2011
published in: Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 27; no. 4; pp. 536 - 562
Data of publication: 2011
Series: Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Online Access: available in Bonn?
Database: RePEc
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