Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications
The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, and (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at shor...
Saved in:
| Volume: | 27 |
|---|---|
| Main Author: | Frankel, Jeffrey Alexander |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Place of publication: |
Oxford University Press 2011 |
| published in: | Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 27; no. 4; pp. 536 - 562 |
| Data of publication: | 2011 |
| Series: |
Oxford Review of Economic Policy |
| Online Access: | available in Bonn? |
| Database: | RePEc IDEAS RePEc Database information Databases - DBIS |